Market Compass

What's happening in markets, where they're leaning, and why.

High risk level: The energy crisis and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are driving the agenda, and investors are in a neutral position.

Updated October 16 at 00:11

Alpha-Signal Fear & Greed Index

Down 2 pts from yesterday

What does it mean? Markets are balanced: no panic and no euphoria, and the direction is still open.

Last 30 days

Where markets are heading

Pressure is measured from the impact of events over the last 7 days. It's a direction, not a price forecast.

What happens when interest rates rise?

Choose a rate change and see how different assets tend to react.

Where we are now: US mortgage rates remain at 3-year high · Oct 15

Rate change+0.50%

Mortgage of ₪1,000,000 and25 Year

Today (4.5%)₪5,558

After the change (5.00%)₪5,846

+₪288 per month · +₪3,451 per year

Bank of Israel interest rate rises by 0.50 percentage points.

Growth and tech stocksTends to fall· Mild
More expensive financing for local tech companies, and the value of future earnings falls.
Value stocks and banksTends to rise· Mild
Israeli banks earn more on the spread between lending and deposit rates.
BondsTends to fall· Mild
Israeli government bond prices fall when yields rise.
Dollar (DXY)Almost unchanged
The Bank of Israel rate has almost no effect on the global dollar.
Shekel vs. dollarThe shekel strengthens· Mild
A rate gap in the shekel's favor attracts capital; the shekel strengthens and the dollar rate falls.
GoldAlmost unchanged
The gold price is set globally. In shekels, a strong shekel makes it slightly cheaper.
BitcoinAlmost unchanged
The effect is limited: crypto responds mainly to global liquidity.
Real estate and mortgagesTends to fall· Mild
Prime rises, mortgages get more expensive and housing demand cools.
Deposit savingsTends to rise· Medium
Banks pay more on money in shekel deposits.

Typical historical relationships — not a forecast.

Chain reaction

How one event ripples all the way to the markets — the three most severe events of the week.

High severityOct 14
US considering the use of heavy strategic weapons against Iran
1. Report on consideration of using strategic weapons
2. Rise in geopolitical risk premium
3. Fear of disruption to oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz
4. Sharp rise in oil prices
5. Liquidity flight from risk assets (stocks) to safe havens (gold)
Impact on markets
- Oil Rising, impact Strong
- Gold Rising, impact Strong
- Stocks Falling, impact Medium
- Crypto Falling, impact Medium
High severityOct 11
NATO warning to Russia
1. Nuclear threats from Russia
2. NATO warning
3. Rise in geopolitical risk
4. Flight from risk assets to safe-haven assets
5. Rise in gold and energy prices
Impact on markets
- Oil Rising, impact Strong
- Gold Rising, impact Strong
- Stocks Falling, impact Medium
- Crypto Falling, impact Medium
High severityOct 9
US condemns Chinese actions around Taiwan
1. Increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan
2. Strong American condemnation
3. Rising concern over military conflict
4. Decrease in risk appetite in the markets
Impact on markets
- Stocks Falling, impact Strong
- Gold Rising, impact Strong
- Oil Rising, impact Medium
- Crypto Falling, impact Medium

Hot topics

What drew the most attention this week, by number of events and their severity.

Energy crisis and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran
Heating up
134 Events this week · 51 Last week
Latest article: The impact of the diesel price surge on global inflation
Monetary policy, interest rates, and US government debt
Heating up
57 Events this week · 19 Last week
Latest article: US mortgage rates remain at 3-year high
Escalation in the war in Ukraine
Heating up
51 Events this week
Latest article: Unveiling of Ukraine's new medical evacuation drone 'StarGate'
Energy crisis and US-Russia-Ukraine trade
Heating up
39 Events this week
Latest article: Growing criticism in the Republican Party regarding Trump's diesel deal with Russia
Trump's energy policy
Heating up
16 Events this week
Latest article: TotalEnergies announces further price reductions for diesel
US midterm elections
Heating up
20 Events this week
Latest article: Shift in conflict lines in congressional elections: Republicans retreating from key districts

What to watch this week

The events and indicators that could change the picture.

Tracking the ongoing discussions at the IMF and World Bank meetings in BangkokIn the coming week
Examining German and European responses to the continuation of Trump's diesel policyIn the coming week
Monitoring infrastructure status after Storm Isaias and its impact on energy pricesIn the coming week
Brent crude oil price above $8576 events point to this
VIX index above 2042 events point to this
VIX index above 2515 events point to this

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